Essay No: 2

                                                        

                               India’s Changing Foreign Policy after 2014

The likely defeat of the Congress Party in India’s 16^th general election has prompted considerable debate about the impact a change of guard in Delhi will have on foreign policy. What would India’s foreign policy look like in the event of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) government coming to power in 2014, either on its own or with the support of allies?

Many in India and abroad believe that India’s foreign policy is poised for a “sea change” under a BJP government after 2014, especially one headed by the strident Narendra Modi.

According to Sreeram Chaulia , professor and dean at the Jindal school of International Affaire in Sonipat , India, foreign policy under modi-led government will see greater emphasis on commercial diplomacy, “more assertive action in response to [Pakistan backed] cross-border terrorism, ”greater attention to long-term policy planning with a view to formulating grand strategy for scenarios in 2020 and beyond, “a bigger role for the military in shaping India’s national security and formulating doctrines,” and a GREATER say for the states in the government’s formulation and execution of foreign policy.

Not much is known of Modi’s foreign policy thinking. Even the BJP’s election manifesto, which is said to carry his “definite imprint,” sheds little light; just a over a page documents is devoted to foreign policy.

A controversial and polarizing figure, Modi has often poured scorn on the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government’s “soft” response to terrorist attacks emanating from Pakistan and Chinese incursions into Indian Territory.  This has contributed to a widely held perception that he will be tough in his response to Pakistan-backed terrorism and would not baulk at the use of force. Modi is also expected to take a tougher stand in dealing with India’s territorial disputes with Pakistan and Chine.

What “though” might mean in practice is unclear at this point, and how far Modi will go is hotly debated.

  Some have even argued that he may reserve the right to use tactical nuclear weapons against Pakistan in response to a major terrorist attack. Most, of course, don’t go that far.

 According to Chaulia, in dealing with terrorism emanating from Pakistan, modi could go for “clinical counter-strikes” and covert operations, including targeted assassinations of key figures in the Pakistan-based, anti-India terrorist network. But he “will try to avoid war with Pakistan at all costs because of the obvious danger of nuclear exchange, “he says.

While agreeing that Modi will appear tough with Pakistan, T P Sreenivasan, a former diplomat who spent 37 years with the Indian Foreign Service, argues that  “this toughness will not go beyond a point” as he will realize soon that with “war not an option anymore, a tough approach will go only so far.”

In fact, foreign policy under Modi, Sreenivasan policy under Modi, Sreenivasan says, “will not change in any significant way.” It would be “continuity rather than change, because former diplomats would be advising Modi, foreign policy not being his forte.” Changes if any will be in nuance and not fundamental in nature.

Indeed, a striking feature of India’s foreign policy is its continuity. Certainly there have been shifts, but as Manjari Chatterjee Miller points out in a recent article in Foreign Affairs, “the broad shape of Indian foreign policy has remained the same for nearly five decades.” Even when shifts do occur, they are not “sudden,” “have had little to do with the prime minister’s political ideology.

It is in emphasis and style rather than substance that the Modi government’s foreign policy will differ from that of the UPA. Modi will be less patient with Pakistan and can be expected to base his relations with all of India’s neighbours (and not just Pakistan and China) on reciprocity.

But like another BJP prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998-2004), Modi    would try to reach a final settlement with Pakistan on Kashmir, Chaulia says.

In fact, Modi is reported to have already reached out to Pakistan by sending his emissaries to confer with its leadership.

Vajpayee was assertive in his conduct of foreign policy. Within three months of coming to power, his government conducted a string of nuclear tests, declared Indian to be a nuclear ambiguity. His government conducted a string of nuclear tests, declared Indian to be a nuclear weapon n state, and abandoned the decades –old policy of nuclear ambiguity. His government’s relations with Pakistan were often tense; the two countries fought a near-war at Kargil in 1999 and tensions sorted repeatedly over major terrorist attacks in India. Following a terrorist attack on India’s parliament in 2001, the Vajpayee government ordered a massive, year-long mobilization of the security forces along the India-Pakistan border to push Pakistan to dismantle the anti-India terrorist network on its soil.

This toughness notwithstanding, Vajpayee also set in motion a peace process with Pakistan, engage in dialogue with it at the highest level, reach a ceasefire agreement that reminds the force and initiated a direct bus service between the two countries.

Modi’s critics point out that unlike Vajpayee he is not liberal in his outlook as has not demonstrated the vision that would be required to pursue a lasting peace.

Modi is expected to allow state governments a greater say in the formulation and execution in foreign policy. He has said the states that have special links with other countries whether due to shared borders, historical links, or cultural communalities should be consulted in framing policies and crafting strategies with that country. He has spoken of India’s 30 states as partners in his governments’ execution of foreign policy and of wanting to entrust them with “The task of foreign beneficial foreign relations with at least 30 corresponding partner countries.”

Overall, Modi is likely to be comfortable with federalizing foreign policy only with regard to this state courting foreign investment. On other matters it will be his government that calls the shots.

Of course, all this assumes that Modi will be able to form a government, on its own or with allies. Should the assumption prove false, then India may wall end up with a coalition of regional and national parties.

Such a coalition is very likely to be unstable, with little in common among it’s constituents. Pre-occupied with survival and pulling in different directions, expect Indian foreign policy to be somewhat chaotic, lacking the robustness or purpose that could be expected of a strong BJP government.